We all know that Alabama and Florida State are the two teams that are completely in control of their own destiny. Both of these teams just have to win out, and avoid any off the field scandals/issues. So, as it sits right now, if everything plays out the way it is supposed to, Alabama and Florida State will be playing for the National Championship in January.
But let’s take a look at a couple “what if” factors that could really just throw the whole BCS race into a complete tizzy. We aren’t just going to throw a couple of simple “what if” things in here, we are going all out with this scenario. We are going to consider the absolutely worst case scenario that could happen in this year’s 2013 BCS National Championship Race. Currently our BCS Rankings look like this:
- Alabama Crimson Tide (11-0)
- Florida State Seminoles (11-0)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0)
- Auburn Tigers (10-1)
- Missouri Tigers (10-1)
- Clemson Tigers (10-1)
- Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-1)
- Stanford Cardinal (9-2)
- Baylor Bears (9-1)
- South Carolina Gamecocks (9-2)
So, by this list of top 10, we can tell a couple of things. 1) We can tell that Auburn is the best 1-loss team. 2) We can tell that Stanford is considered the best 2-loss team. 3) This list of top-10 teams has the potential to be a ticking time bomb that could completely blow up, and cause all sorts of trouble in the BCS Race.
First, let’s say the worst happens for Florida State. Let’s say that the Tallahassee District Attorney’s office decides to file charges against Jameis Winston for his alleged rape case, and that makes Jameis Winston an ineligible player for the Seminoles. Now, how will that effect voters? Would the Seminoles drop to 3rd? 4th? or possibly even as far as 8th? I personally wouldn’t have the Seminoles drop at all, because 1 man doesn’t make a team no matter how much he helps. (So, for the purpose of this, we will say that the loss of Jameis Winston will still keep the Seminoles at #2.) Ok, well, let’s take this one step further. Let’s say, that the loss of Jameis Winston throws the Seminoles team into complete disarray. Let’s say that without Winston, and without FSU’s second string quarterback – who just had surgery, and is done for the season – the Seminoles would have to drop all the way to their third string quarterback, and I don’t even know who that is. So, Florida State heads into the ACC Championship Game against Duke, and loses a close one. What would that do to Florida State? That would probably drop Florida State to say, about 9 or 10 in the BCS rankings.
Now, who’s next? Ohio State. Ohio State has been doing a fantastic job this season of cleaning out everyone they have played against, even the good team(s): Wisconsin. But, again this is the worst case scenario. Ohio State gets to the Big 10 Championship game against Michigan State, and just has an awful showing against the Spartans. Say, the Buckeyes really drop the ball (like the pun?). So, with the loss to the Spartans chalking up a loss to the Spartans the Buckeyes would be automatically taken out of the National Championship consideration given their lack luster strength of schedule.
Now, who is left? We have Auburn sitting at #4, Missouri sitting at #5, and Clemson sitting at #6. We will go in reverse order. South Carolina is currently a 5 point favorite over the Clemson Tigers, which I don’t really understand, but who am I to argue with the Vegas lines? So, let’s say the lines hold true, and the Gamecocks come out of that in-state rivalry match-up victorious. Missouri has definitely turned some heads in the SEC this season, and around the nation. Missouri is the favorite to head to Atlanta as the East representative as long as they can come out on top against the Aggies this coming weekend. Let’s say the Tigers win against the Aggies, and head to Atlanta, and fall to the SEC West counterpart, whether it be Alabama or Auburn (relax Mizzou fans, I’m not saying it will happen – this is a “what if” scenario, remember?). Next, Auburn, Auburn is a tricky one. But in cases of the worst for the BCS Race. We will have to have Auburn win the Iron Bowl match up this week (sorry Alabama fans, please see comment I made to Mizzou fans two lines up).
Finally, our last two: Oklahoma State and Stanford. Oklahoma State has looked incredible against everyone they playing, including a – what we thought was tough – Baylor team last week. Oklahoma State still has to take on Oklahoma. And for the sake of this “Worst-case scenario” we will have Oklahoma State fall to the Oklahoma Sooners. It’s happened before, so don’t tell me it won’t happen again. We’ve seen weirder stuff happen before. Finally, we come to Stanford, personally, I don’t know if Stanford still has a shot at the National Championship game, but let’s say they do for kicks and giggles. Stanford has punched their ticket into the Pac-12 Championship game against Arizona State Sun Devils. Now, I know Stanford’s defense is good, and that they will attempt to employ the same strategy against the Sun Devils as they did against Oregon. Now, consider this. If Arizona State wins against Arizona – which is likely – the Sun Devils will have home field advantage in the Pac-12 Championship. And, also, for the sake of this scenario, we will have Arizona State come away with the win, and hand Stanford their third loss of the season.
Let’s quickly review, now we have Auburn facing Missouri in the SEC Championship Game, and defeating the Missouri Tigers. We have Ohio State losing to Michigan State, and knocking the Buckeyes out of contention. We have Arizona State upsetting Stanford – if you can really call that an upset, and the Cowboys getting uplifted by in-state rivals Oklahoma. So, let’s take a look at what our BCS Rankings would probably look like if all of these things happened just as I said they would, if this was indeed the worst-case scenario. Remember this would probably be the rankings heading into the Bowl Season, and #1 and #2 would be playing for the National Championship (so the records indicate everything that I just described).
- Auburn Tigers (12-1) – After knocking off Alabama and winning the SEC Championship & best one loss team in the country.
- Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) – After the loss to Auburn, taking a break and watching everything unfold during the Conference Championship week might actually help the Crimson Tide’s chances.
- Baylor Bears (11-1) – Even if the Baylor Bears win out, the lack of the Conference Championship would hurt the Big 12 again this season, and keep the Bears out of the top two. Baylor’s schedule ends with @TCU, and then playing Texas at home. I wouldn’t call that enough to propel the Bears past Alabama who would have their loss to the now #1 ranked team in the nation.
- Michigan State Spartans (12-1) – I know that we had Michigan State beating Ohio State, and the case could be made that Michigan State deserves to be #1 or #2 in the nation. However, that loss to Notre Dame earlier in the season really hurts the Spartans here. Plus the Spartans have the same problem as the Buckeyes, with the lack of strength in the schedule.
- Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) – With that loss, people would most likely consider Ohio State to be the worst 1-loss team in the nation, and it would push the Buckeyes down to at least #5 in the rankings, if not further down than that.
- South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) – At this point, it is really a jumbled up mess between #6 and #10. These teams all have two losses, so it is really difficult to decipher where each of these teams would fall. But South Carolina lands at #6 with their win over Clemson, and the 4th quarter victory over Missouri earlier in the season.
- Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) – With the win over the Cardinal, the Sun Devils would leap-frog a lot of people, and easily land in the top 10 of the rankings. However, the two losses that the Sun Devils suffered throughout the season hurt deeply in the grand scheme of how high the Sun Devils could climb.
- Missouri Tigers (11-2) – With the SEC Championship loss to a very highly ranked Auburn team, Missouri wouldn’t drop too far, however, with this being the second loss of the season, the Tigers do take a dive. Could an argument be made that the Tigers deserve to be #5? Absolutely, I think so, however, this is where I see they would ultimately land.
- Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) – Handing the second loss to the Cowboys really helped the Sooners, and really hurt the Cowboys. The Sooners just do not have the record to launch them into the Top 5, but have enough juice to get them in the Top 10.
- Oregon Ducks (10-2) – Oregon would just sit back quietly and ease their way back into the Top 10 as the chaos above them occurred and everything came tumbling around them. Oregon would come out near the top of the rumble after the win against Oregon State.
Are the many other teams that would deserve a shot at #6-#10 in the rankings? Sure, why not? Teams such as, the Florida State Seminoles, Clemson Tigers, Northern Illinois Huskies, Wisconsin Badgers, and Fresno State Bulldogs. All of those teams have an argument to be in the last 5 spots of the Top 10. But these are the Top 10, as I, personally would see the rankings washing out.
So, as I am sure you can see, and understand why, this scenario would be the absolute worst possible thing that could happen in this year’s BCS Championship Race. The nation would see a repeat of the 2011 National Championship, where Alabama would back door their way into the National Championship with a rematch against the only team that the Crimson Tide fell to in the Auburn Tigers. Who would win that game? You got me there. Flip a coin, I don’t know.
But, what I do know for sure. Is that no one. And I mean NO ONE would want to see all of this chaos happen. No one – except for Alabama fans – would love to see a rematch against their most hated opponent in the Auburn Tigers.
Have we seen crazier things happen? Perhaps? I personally can’t remember a time when something that crazy has happened before, but if you do please feel free to share it! I’d love to hear it!
Hope and pray people. Hope and pray.
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