First Four In, First Two Out: Week 4

In the new era of the College Football Playoff, and after this week of college football, its time to speculate as to who will be the final four come December. There is quite a change from what we were expecting and what we saw last week, after the college football shake-up.

This projection is an estimation of what the actual College Football Play-Off Selections will be for the National Semi-Finals. This does not necessarily represent the current Top 4-6 teams of the Stay For Four Rankings.

After Week 5, here is what we are thinking here at Stay For Four.

First Four In, First Two Out: Week 4

In the new era of the College Football Playoff, and after this week of college football, its time to speculate as to who will be the final four come December. Of course this information is based on the small sample size we have seen thus far.

This projection is an estimation of what the actual College Football Play-Off Selections will be for the National Semi-Finals. This does not necessarily represent the current Top 4-6 teams of the Stay For Four Rankings.

After Week 4, here is what we are thinking here at Stay For Four.

First Four In, First Two Out: Week 3

In the new era of the College Football Playoff, and after this week of college football, its time to speculate as to who will be the final four come December. Of course this information is based on the small sample size we have seen thus far.

This projection is an estimation of what the actual College Football Play-Off Selections will be for the National Semi-Finals. This does not necessarily represent the current Top 4-6 teams of the Stay For Four Rankings.

After Week 3, here is what we are thinking here at Stay For Four.

The Big 12 Could Completely Miss Out On 2014 Football Playoff

I know everyone loves the Big 12, they are so great, and they play everyone in their conference, blah blah blah. “So what?” as my high school English teacher would say when I submitted a paper that had absolutely no grounds for reason into her. And that is what I am saying to the Big 12. 

The Big 12 does play everyone in their conference, we have to give them that. But, that doesn’t seem that difficult when you are playing teams like Iowa State, Kansas, and Oklahoma State or Texas (who have just seemed to fall off the face of the earth lately). The biggest thing that will hurt the Big 12 this year is not having a conference championship. This is finally the year where the Big 12 will be openly scolded about not having a conference championship game. Everyone in the Big 12 has 3 bye weeks compared to everyone else – again because of the conference championship.

Ohio State has a better shot right now of making it into the playoff – even with the loss to Virginia Tech – than either TCU or Baylor. Part of that is simply because neither TCU or Baylor seems to be able to pull away from the other, and assert their dominance. But the other reason is because the Big 12 doesn’t have a conference championship.

I am starting to sound like a broken record aren’t I? (I’m sure you youngster have no idea what this reference means, man that makes me feel old).

Conference Champions will play a big role in the playoff selection committee choosing who will be in the college football playoff, and the Big 12 simply doesn’t have it. Does this mean that the Big 12 is not deserving of a spot? Not necessarily no. But winning a conference championship does put your team and conference onto another level, and boosts that resume that much more.

We don’t even care who the Big 12 adds, just as long as they add someone, and quick. Add Louisiana Tech, Sam Houston State, University of Houston, Arkansas State, University of Memphis, Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana-Lafayette, I can go all day. We don’t care, Big 12, who you add, but you need to add upwards of 2 teams, and you need to do it NOW!

Otherwise, you are probably going to be left in the dust after December 7, 2014 and beyond. Get with the program.

Why The CFP Got Week 12 Rankings Right

Through this point in the season, we have seen multiple ups and downs (I mean, just look at UCLA). There are a lot of angry people who went to bed on Tuesday night because their team wasn’t in the “right place.” Well, everyone just needs to take a chill pill and be patient. Also, need I remind you people that you all asked for this playoff selection thing. Do none of you remember that I was saying that the BCS was an amazing system, it worked incredibly well, and did in fact put the best two teams together year in and out. If any of you wanted a playoff, you didn’t need a selection committee. All you had to do was use the BCS Ranking System to compile the top 4 teams in the nation, and then use the playoff to determine the champion. Anyway, this is the crappy system all of you wanted, so deal with it. #BringbacktheBCS

Any-who…. Though the fact that I still am not a super fan of the Playoff Committee, and all of you are now becoming disgruntled with the committee’s selections (except for you TCU fans out there – you deserve it!) – oh, how the tables have turned. I am actually a super fan of this week’s rankings, and please allow me to just take a couple minutes to explain why.

1. Mississippi State: Naturally, the best team in the nation. State is the most deserving team of the number 1 ranking in the nation. State has gone through the brutal SEC schedule unscathed thus far, and are arguably playing the best football as of late.
2. Oregon Ducks: Oregon – even with the 1 loss – is a much better and much more complete team than Florida State or anyone else in the nation. Are there really any questions? Didn’t think so… MOVING ON!
3. Florida State: Although Florida State’s strength of schedule is not all that great, you have give credit to a team that has gone undefeated in a Power 5 conference.

The first 3 teams in the rankings are not incredibly difficult to understand. Where it gets tricky are teams 4-10: TCU, Alabama, Arizona State, Baylor, Ohio State, Auburn, & Ole Miss. Ole Miss and Auburn have 2 losses (although one of their losses came to highly ranked teams) one of their losses came from a team that appeared to be in a downward spiral (LSU & Texas A&M, respectively). Now, Ohio State, only has one loss. However, the broken egg (no idea where that reference came from, but I am using it you BCS haters) comes from Ohio State losing to Virginia Tech early on in the season, and watching Virginia Tech struggle to get through the measly ACC (Yes, I said measly. ACC fans get over yourself, when you guys actually have more than 1 team that is legitimate, then we can talk). Oh, and did I mention that Ohio State is in the Big Ten? Do I really need to explain that I could easily make the argument that the Big Ten is the worst conference in the nation? Next.

TCU, Alabama, Arizona State, and Baylor fans could all make an argument for their team to be in the fourth and remaining playoff spot. First, let’s address all the Alabama fans out there including Phyllis who are going to rant and rave about the fact that Alabama isn’t in the top 4 after being LSU in Death Valley on Saturday night. To be completely objective, Alabama lost that LSU game for the first 59 minutes and 10 seconds, and before you say, “it’s the full 60 minutes that count” look at the whole game. Can you tell me that Alabama looked like one of the top 4 teams in the nation? I know I can not say that. But even past the “eye-test” what else is proving that Alabama deserves the fourth spot. Alabama’s best wins include West Virginia & now LSU. Alas, West Virginia just tanked to the struggling Texas Longhorns on Saturday, and LSU has been a roller coaster since Week 1 against Wisconsin – who looks like a mediocre Big Ten team. Why it doesn’t matter: No, it doesn’t matter that Alabama is ranked outside of the top 4. There are 4 weeks left in college football, and Alabama has 2 more Top 10 teams on the schedule: Mississippi State (Nov 15) and Auburn (Nov 29). If Alabama wins out, the Tide is in the playoff, if not ahead of the Seminoles by mid-December.

Arizona State is next on our list, before we talk the Big 12 debacle. Arizona State has been getting progressively better each week of the season, but the one eye sore is the 62-27 loss to UCLA. Arizona State is finding ways to win it’s games, even if the Sun Devil defense seems to be lacking a bit. Arizona State has one true test left on the road at in-state rival, Arizona Wildcats, at the end of the year. Why it doesn’t matter: Arizona State is holding on to the wheel, and hanging on for dear life. The Sun Devils will have to win out the regular season, and will then have essentially a play-in game to the playoff with the potential show down with Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship. As long as Arizona State and Oregon win out, the winner will be in the playoff. Period. No questions asked.

Finally, we come to the Big 12. TCU or Baylor? TCU or Baylor? Head-to-Head or Strength of Schedule? What ultimately is more important? The College Football Playoff Committee has decided that Strength of Schedule is more important, and that Head-to-Head is mainly used as a tie-breaker. All those Baylor Bears out there are screaming for everyone to look at the Head-to-Head match-up where Baylor managed to overcome a 24 point deficit at home. First of all, had that game been played on a neutral site, TCU comes away with that win, easily, and we are arguing over whether TCU is in the top 2. My second response to that is let’s look at strength of schedule and similar opponents to determine this debate. Strength of Schedule is pretty easy to compare given that they are both in the Big 12, so we have to go to the non-conference schedule, which TCU comes away with a win there with a victory over Big Ten foe – Minnesota. So, now we go to similar opponents to determine even more evidence for the Horned Frogs. Through this point in the season TCU & Baylor have 3 similar opponents (by the end of the season, they will have 8 similar opponents in addition to their head-to-head): SMU, Oklahoma, & West Virginia.

• TCU: @ SMU (56-0); Oklahoma (37-33); @ West Virginia (31-30)
• Baylor: SMU (45-0); @ Oklahoma (48-14); @ West Virginia (27-41) [Loss]

If we were to look at the summations of these scores, TCU has scored only 4 more points than Baylor. If you are looking for an arguing point for Baylor, you could say that Baylor has allowed less points (8) to these three similar opponents than TCU. Overall, TCU resume appears better to me, but an argument could be made for both. I guess we will have to wait and see how TCU and Baylor play throughout the season, and how they match-up with the similar opponents at the end of the season.

Long story short, based on current resume’s, the College Football Playoff got this week’s rankings correct. We will have to wait and see what the remainder of the season unfolds.

Why Having More Than 1 SEC Team In the Playoff is Looking Less and Less Likely

We all know the SEC is the most dominant conference in college football – well, ok, the SEC West is the most dominant conference in college football. Throughout the season, we have seen the SEC West teams employ their will and determination on various teams from around the nation. In fact, the teams from the SEC West have yet to lose to a team even outside of the SEC West (except for Arkansas falling to Georgia). The SEC West was looking fantastic prior to Week 10. Then, as Week 11 was rolling around, there were rumors and premonitions about the possibility of a 5-team tie in the SEC West with every team having two loses. And now, we are headed into Week 12.

The season is coming to a close, and we Mark May is still talking about the potential of having 2 SEC teams in the first ever College Football Playoff. It will not happen at all, not at this point in the season. Currently, Mississippi State and Alabama are the only two teams that are either undefeated or have one loss (happens to be respectively). Around the nation, there are 8 teams left outside of the SEC (plus Marshall & Florida State who are still undefeated) that have 1 loss: Oregon, TCU, Baylor, Arizona State, Ohio State, Nebraska, Duke, & Colorado State.

The SEC will need some help in order to get 2 SEC Teams into the College Football Playoff this season. As of right now, Mississippi State and Alabama are on a collision course for this weekend. If Mississippi State wins, than Alabama will have 2 losses on the season, and will be virtually eliminated from the college football playoff. On the other hand, if Alabama wins, then Mississippi State will be handed its first loss of the season. At first look, an Alabama win looks like the best case scenario for 2 teams to make it into the College Football Playoff. But, I am sorry to say that it won’t happen, nor should it.

The CBS game this weekend between Mississippi State and Alabama will ultimately be the first step in determining the SEC West Champion. The loser of the game (let’s say for example sake that it is Mississippi State) will most likely drop out of the top 4, arguably out of the top 5. If that were to happen, then the SEC would definitely need some help to get a 2nd team into the playoff. The SEC would need all but 2 of the remaining 1-loss teams to lose between now and the final release of the college football playoff rankings. 

Mississippi State or Alabama will be headed to the SEC Championship game (depending on who wins out), and that game could cause a lot of interesting scenarios as well. If either State or Alabama were to lose to the SEC East team (most likely Missouri or Georgia at this point of the season), then it would be likely that the team that happened to lose this weekend in Tuscaloosa would be the team that makes it into the College Football Playoff, even over the SEC East & SEC Conference Champion.

There are a lot of various scenarios that could happen. However, bottom-line is that there will not be two SEC teams in the college football playoff this season.

The Inner Workings of the College Football Playoff

So, were you, also, just finally understanding all the various little things that the BCS had to offer. Because I was. I had the BCS figured out like the back of my hand. Now, I am a little lost as to what is going on in this new College Football Playoff. So, in researching and laying it all out to all of you, I am hoping that I learn this new system a little better and that you learn something too.

The New Year

It is a new year and new era for college football. But, make sure you ask off every year for New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day because there will be a lot of football on, non-stop. Each day will offer back-to-back triple headers. Two of which will be semifinal games of which the winners will go on to the National Championship. The other four premier bowl games will be played on either of the two days.

The Best Four Teams

Ok, so we all know that the best four teams will be playing in the College Football Playoff. That’s easy. We all know that, just like we all know that “15 minutes could save you 15% or more on car insurance” (yeah, maybe if you want really shady insurance). Moving on!

The Selection Committee

A group of “high-integrity individuals” comprises former coaches, collegiate athletes, college administrators, journalist, and current athletic directors. Let’s take a closer look at this 13 member committee that is tasked with possibly the most difficult task ever. We will also post the conference (we assume) each member represents in italics following each individual.

• Jeff Long (Chair): Athletic Director (University of Arkansas) – SEC
• Barry Alvarez: Athletic Director/Former Coach (University of Wisconsin) – Big 10
• Mike Gould: Former Superintendent (U.S. Air Force Academy) – Mountain West
• Pat Haden: Athletic Director/Rhodes Scholar/Former Athlete (University of Southern California) – Pac-12
• Tom Jernstedt: Long-time NCAA Executive – credited with guiding the NCAA Men’s Division I Basketball Championship until 2010
• Oliver Luck*: Athletic Director/Former Athlete (University of West Virginia) – Big 12
• Archie Manning**: Hall of Famer/Former Athlete (University of Mississippi) – SEC
• Tom Osbourne: Hall of Famer/Former U.S. Congressman/3x National Championship Coach (University of Nebraska) – Big 10
• Dan Radakovich: Athletic Director (Clemson University) – ACC
• Condoleezza Rice: Former University Provost/U.S. National Security Advisor/U.S. Secretary of State/Political Science Professor (Stanford University) – Pac-12
• Mike Tranghese: Former Big East Commissioner/NCAAM Basketball Selection Committee Member – American
• Steve Wieberg: Former Media Member for USA Today until 2012
• Tyrone Willingham: Home Depot Coach of the Year in 2002/Former Coach (Stanford University/University of Notre Dame/University of Washington) – Pac-12

Just to put it in perspective. We have 3 members representing the Pac-12, 2 members representing the SEC, 1 member representing the AAC/ACC/Big10/Mountain West, 1 member representing the NCAA, and 1 Journalist. Seems like a pretty solid group of people.

*Father of Andrew Luck. Andrew is a former quarterback for Stanford, and was selected #1 overall by the Indianapolis Colts in the 2012 NFL Draft.

**Father of Peyton & Eli Manning. Peyton is a former quarterback for Tennessee, and was selected #1 overall by the Indianapolis Colts in the 1998 NFL Draft. He currently plays for Denver Broncos as of 2012. Eli is a former quarterback for Ole Miss, and was selected #1 overall by the New York Giants in the 2004 NFL Draft.

Selection Committee Responsibilities

1. Select the top 4 teams for the playoff, rank them, and assign them to the semifinal sites (we assume based on region)
2. rank the next group of teams to play in the other New Year’s Bowls if berth are available
3. Select the highest-ranked champion from the five conferences without New Year’s bowl contracts
4. When assigning teams to New Year’s bowls:
   1. create competitive matchups
   2. attempt to avoid rematches of regular-season games and repeat appearances
   3. consider geography

Who Plays Where?

This is the main question that I think everyone is asking, “Who belongs to what bowl? Or is it just completely up-for-grabs?”

The 6 Premier Bowl Games are as Follows: Sugar Bowl (Superdome – New Orleans, LA), Rose Bowl (Rose Bowl – Pasadena, CA), Orange Bowl (SunLife Stadium – Miami, FL), Cotton Bowl (AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX), Peach Bowl (Georgia Dome – Atlanta, GA), and the Fiesta Bowl (University of Phoenix Stadium – Glendale, AZ).

New Year Bowl Tie-Ins:

• Sugar Bowl: SEC Champion & Big 12 Champion
• Rose Bowl: Big 10 Champion & Pac-12 Champion
• Orange Bowl: ACC Champion & (Highest Ranked Team from SEC (#2), Big 10 (#2), or Notre Dame***)
• Cotton Bowl: at-large or “Group of Five” (Committee Selection)
• Fiesta Bowl: at-large or “Group of Five” (Committee Selection)
• Peach Bowl: at-large or “Group of Five” (Committee Selection)

***Orange Bowl Conditions:

• The SEC & Big Ten are guaranteed at least three appearances during the eight non-playoff years, while Notre Dame can only appear a maximum of twice.
• In non-playoff years, if the Orange Bowl matchup creates a regular-season rematch for the ACC representative, the bowl may choose to “skip over” the prescribed opponent from the SEC/Big 10/Notre Dame group and select the next highest-ranked team from the group. The team that was rejected would be placed in one of the three at-large bowls. (i.e. Notre Dame was ranked higher than SEC #2 or Big 10 #2 and already played the ACC Champion during the regular season.)
• When the Orange Bowl is a National Semifinal Bowl & the ACC Champion is not selected for the playoff, the ACC Champion will play in the Fiesta or Peach bowls.

If a conference champion gets selected for the playoff, then that bowl will choose a replacement from the same conference. (i.e. If Florida State wins the ACC & gets selected for the 4 team playoff, Florida State will play in either the Sugar or Rose Bowl. The Orange Bowl will then chose a replacement from the ACC for the Orange Bowl.)

If the selected Semi-Final Bowl Games’ Conference Tie-In Champions do not get selected for the College Football Playoff, those Conference Champions will play in other New Year’s bowls (i.e. every Conference Champion of a Power 5 Conference will play in a New Year’s Bowl.)

The Fiesta, Cotton, and Peach Bowls will host non-selected Conference Champions AND the Top-Ranked Champion from the “Group of Five” will choose which bowl they would like to attend (5 mid-major conference: AAC, C-USA, MAC, MWC, Sun Belt) if the Champion is not in the playoff. The highest-ranked available teams will then fill any other berths, and will be paired up by the Selection Committee.

College Football Playoff Schedule

 

What About Everyone Else?

In 2014-2015, the number of bowl games increased to a total of 39 bowl games (76 participating teams-2 teams play twice). Everything is essentially the same, except for some few minor changes (i.e. there is no more Chick-Fil-A Bowl tied to the SEC, and the SEC picked up the Belk Bowl). There are some other changes, and you can check those out in all of our Bowl Projections that come out on Tuesday.